Indian equity markets are predicted to experience volatility in the coming week, influenced by domestic economic data, F&O expiry, US tariff policies, and escalating US-Iran

Photograph: Danish Siddiqui/Reuters

Key Points

• Indian equity markets are expected to remain volatile due to domestic macroeconomic data releases and monthly F&O expiry.
• Global developments, including US tariff policies and tensions between the US and Iran, will influence market movement.
• Investors will closely monitor crude oil price movements and global monetary signals.
• India’s upcoming GDP data release will be keenly watched for its impact on earnings momentum.
• Market sentiment will likely oscillate between caution and optimism, with liquidity flows and global risk sentiment acting as key triggers.

Analysts said domestic macroeconomic data, monthly F&O expiry and global developments following US President Donald Trump’s tariff hike after the Supreme Court verdict are likely to keep equity markets volatile next week.

Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors, developments between the US and Iran, movements in crude oil prices and global monetary signals will also guide market movement during the week, they added.

Factors Influencing Market Volatility

“Markets are likely to remain volatile in the coming week, particularly with the monthly F&O expiry scheduled for February 24.

On the domestic front, key data releases include GDP figures, government budget value, foreign exchange reserves, and infrastructure output (YoY),” Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

He said investors will assess the implications around a fresh executive order by Trump which may influence trade dynamics, tariff structures, and global risk sentiment following the US Supreme Court verdict on tariffs.

Trump on Friday levied a 10 per cent tariff on countries, including India, for 150 days following the court ruling, and a day later raised it to 15 per cent, heightening concerns of renewed trade tensions and potential global spillovers, analysts said.

In a major setback to Trump’s pivotal economic agenda in his second term, the US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed by Trump on nations around the world were illegal and that the president had exceeded his authority when he imposed the sweeping levies by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, said the investors will closely monitor the developments between the US and Iran, crude oil price movements, and global monetary signals, adding that the release of India’s GDP data next week will be keenly watched for its implications on earnings momentum and broader market positioning.

On a weekly basis, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 187.95 points, or 0.22 per cent, while the Nifty went up 100.15 points, or 0.39 per cent.

Market Sentiment and Sectoral Performance

“Market sentiment remained volatile during the week, oscillating between caution and optimism.

“Strong buying interest in banking, financials, power, and select FMCG counters helped absorb the impact of persistent global uncertainties,” Nair said.

He added that IT stocks remained subdued as concerns around AI-led disruption and margin pressures weighed on sentiment.

“Despite these challenges, resilience in large caps, selective sectoral flows, and optimism around India’s participation in Pax Silica ensured that the market ended on a positive bias,” he said.

Analysts said the domestic market is likely to continue its range-bound movement in the near-term, with liquidity flows and global risk sentiment acting as key triggers.