US-Venezuela conflict: Gold and silver prices are likely to witness a gap-up opening on Monday, January 5, after US attacked Venezuela, triggering geopolitical tension in the region, according to market experts.
“The US attack on Venezuela is expected to trigger geopolitical tension in the region, which is expected to fuel the uncertainty. Hence, I expect a gap-up opening for gold, silver, copper, crude oil, gasoline, and other commodities,” said Anuj Gupta, Director of Ya Wealth.
Gold prices, which delivered their strongest yearly gain since 1979 by surging nearly 70% in 2025, are expected to come back into focus after the U.S. strikes over the weekend. Venezuela is believed to hold the largest gold reserves in South America, with about 161 metric tonnes valued at close to $22 billion at current market prices.
Gold and silver entered the new year 2026 on a steady note, following their strongest annual gains since 1979, as investors evaluated the upcoming rebalancing of a key commodity benchmark index set to take effect next week.
Bullion prices rose as much as 1.9% on Friday before giving up most of those gains during U.S. trading hours, while silver retreated after earlier surging by up to 4%.
Top five factors that will fuel gold prices on Monday, January 5
US attacks Venezuela
The United States launched a major military operation against Venezuela on Saturday. US President Donald Trump announced the strike via his social media platform, Truth Social, and stated that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife had been detained and taken out of the country.
“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. …… Thank you for your attention to this matter!” Donald Trump said on his social media account, Truth Social, on Saturday.
Crude oil prices
Oil prices were largely steady on the first trading session of 2026, as expectations of an oversupply balanced out geopolitical risks affecting production in several OPEC countries.
Brent crude futures closed below $61 a barrel in relatively light trading, while West Texas Intermediate finished above $57. Markets in the Middle East, including derivatives such as the regional Dubai benchmark, weakened amid strong selling pressure during a key Asian trading window.
Gold-Silver Ratio
After a volatile week, the gold-silver ratio climbed to about 60, after having touched a low of 54 earlier on Monday.
According to Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360, when the gold-silver ratio falls below 80, silver prices begin to enter the overbought zone.
“ In the gold-silver ratio,80 is the pivot point. Similarly, when this ratio exceeds 80, gold prices enter the overbought zone. As the gold rate today in the international market is $4,345.50 per ounce and the silver rate today is $71.30 per ounce, the gold-silver ratio stands slightly above 60, indicating that silver rates today are in the overbought zone. One should avoid buying the white metal in the current market scenario,” Goel said.
Tether buying gold
Another key driving factor behind surge in gold prices is likely to be the growing involvement of non-state entities such as Tether which reinforces the structural demand floor for gold and reduces downside risk during corrective phases, according to market experts.
“Importantly, Tether’s gold accumulation is not tied to its gold-backed token (XAUT). Instead, the purchases have been funded from corporate profits as part of a broader reserve diversification and balance-sheet resilience strategy. Over 100 tonnes of gold held by Tether are not linked to token issuance, underscoring that gold is increasingly being viewed by corporations and technology-driven financial firms as a strategic reserve asset, much like central banks have treated it over the past decade,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS-WealthStreet.
Weakness in the Indian Rupee
The Indian rupee saw its steepest yearly decline since 2022 in 2025, slipping nearly 5% against the US dollar, despite a broader global weakening of the greenback and gains in most emerging-market currencies. Analysts attribute the underperformance largely to sustained capital outflows and extended trade-related uncertainty rather than domestic macroeconomic stress.
Pressure on the rupee stemmed mainly from subdued foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows, sluggish export growth, and increased hedging demand from importers.
(With inputs from agencies)
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
