Trade Setup for March 9: Nifty at risk of a fall towards 24,000 as oil nears 0 a barrel


After a brief pause, the market resumed its decline on Friday, with the Nifty falling 315 points to settle at 24,450, its lowest closing level since August 29, 2025.

The session reversed Thursday’s move. The index opened 109 points lower on weak global cues and traded within a narrow 130-point band with a negative bias until noon.

Selling pressure intensified in the latter half. After 2:30 pm, the Nifty dropped over 200 points from its mid-session high and ended the day close to its intraday low.

Bharat Electronics, ONGC and Reliance Industries were the top gainers on the index, while ICICI Bank, Eternal and Shriram Finance came under pressure and finished among the biggest losers.

Most sectoral indices ended in the red, with the exception of Nifty IT. Financial Services, Bank and Realty recorded the sharpest losses.

The broader market showed relative resilience, as the Nifty Midcap 100 declined 0.69% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 slipped 0.24%.

Going forward, developments in West Asia and their impact on global energy supplies will remain key monitorables for markets, along with movements in crude prices and overall global risk sentiment.

According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the latest price action indicates that the bullish sentiment created after Thursday’s sharp rise has been negated.

He said the development is not encouraging and suggests the Nifty could retest Wednesday’s low of 24,300 in the near term, with immediate resistance placed around 24,700.

Nilesh Jain of Centrum Finverse said that the Nifty slipped below the 24,500 mark and formed a bearish candle on the daily chart. He said the next key support stands at 24,300, and a break below that level could push the index towards 24,000.

On the upside, a move back above 24,800 may trigger short-covering towards 25,000. However, he added that the broader structure remains weak and any rebound is likely to face selling pressure.

Rupak De of LKP Securities said bears returned to the market after the Nifty failed to sustain Thursday’s rebound.

He added that the previous session’s bounce lacked conviction, which led to renewed selling on Friday, while investors also chose to remain cautious ahead of the weekend.

Technically, the index continues to trade below its previous swing low, indicating persistent weakness. De said the Nifty may extend its decline in the near term, with the possibility of drifting towards 24,000 or lower.

Resistance on the higher side is seen at 25,000, and until that level is decisively breached, the trend is likely to favour a sell-on-rise approach.

Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said Friday’s close marks the lowest point in the ongoing downswing, reflecting growing uncertainty in Indian equities.

He added that the trend remains firmly bearish, with supports placed at 24,300 and 24,050, while resistance is clustered in the 24,700-24,800 range.



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