The Indian rupee plummeted to a historic low against the US dollar as escalating geopolitical tensions and soaring crude oil prices trigger economic concerns about inflation and trade deficits.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh
Key Points
- The Indian rupee hit a record closing low of 92.21 against the US dollar due to surging crude oil prices and a stronger dollar.
- Geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy costs are expected to widen India’s trade deficit and fuel inflationary pressures.
- Foreign fund outflows and intense selling in domestic equity markets further weakened the rupee.
- Brent crude oil prices surged by over 10% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, impacting India’s import costs.
- India’s forex reserves reached an all-time high, providing some buffer against the rupee’s depreciation.
The rupee crashed to its all-time closing low of 92.21 against the US dollar on Monday, losing 39 paise during the session, as global crude oil prices saw a sharp spike, and the greenback strengthened amid worsening conflict in the Middle East.
Forex traders said heightened geopolitical uncertainty risks driving energy costs higher, which could widen the trade deficit and stoke inflationary pressures.
Moreover, withdrawal of foreign funds amid intense selling in domestic equity markets further pressured the rupee, they added.
At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 92.22 and rose briefly to 92.15 but kept losing ground through the session and recorded an intraday low of 92.35.
At the end of Monday’s trading session, the rupee was quoted at 92.21, down 39 paise from its previous close.
The rupee depreciated 18 paise against the US dollar on Friday to close at 91.82 against the American currency.
Expert Analysis on Rupee Depreciation
“In line with broader weakness across Asian currencies, the rupee has depreciated against the US Dollar as international crude oil prices surged past USD 100 per barrel, reclaiming levels not seen since 2022,” said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities.
Parmar further noted that the soaring energy costs pose a significant threat to India’s trade deficit, GDP growth, and inflation, given the country’s high reliance on oil imports.
“Amidst heightening geopolitical uncertainty, the spot USDINR is expected to remain firm, with a resistance level near 93.00 and established support at 91.80,” he said.
Global Market Influences
Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading higher by 10.93 per cent at USD 102.82 per barrel in futures trade as the war between US-Israel and Iran intensified.
The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.29 per cent higher at 99.27.
Domestic Market Performance
On the domestic equity market front, the Sensex plunged 1,352.74 points to settle at 77,566.16, while the Nifty tumbled 422.40 points to 24,028.05.
Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth Rs 6,345.57 crore on a net basis on Monday, according to exchange data.
India’s Forex Reserves
Meanwhile, India’s forex reserves jumped USD 4.885 billion to an all-time high of USD 728.494 billion during the week ended February 27, the Reserve Bank said on Friday.
