Experts warn that if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate and supply disruptions persist, oil prices could remain volatile and may move towards the $150 level in the coming period.

Illustration: Dado Ruvic/Reuters

Brent crude prices surged sharply on Monday, rising by more than 25 per cent to $116.5 per barrel, amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has made crude prices bullish.

During the trading session, crude prices also touched a high of $119.45 per barrel, reflecting growing concerns in the global energy market as geopolitical tensions intensify in the region.

West Asia is currently engulfed in a high-intensity, multi-front conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.

The crisis escalated following coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which reportedly resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Supply disruptions in global oil markets

The developments have significantly raised fears of supply disruptions in global oil markets.

Market experts believe that the ongoing tensions are pushing crude prices higher and could drive them further up in the near term.

Oil prices are reflecting growing shortage concerns

Ajay Bagga, banking and market expert, told ANI that oil prices are already reflecting the growing shortage concerns and risk sentiment in global markets.

“Oil prices are rising 18 per cent to 20 per cent this morning in Asia, transmitting a massive risk off to markets as fear takes centre stage.

“Oil prices are the basis of pricing in the economy.

“A 20 per cent global shortage of oil is now getting reflected in prices, which may go up further to the $150 level on Brent,” Bagga said.

He added that the current rise in oil prices reflects a strong fear premium in global markets.

“This is the Fear Premium as at these levels there will be demand destruction across the global economy.

“Oil prices are strongly correlated to food prices, and bring in a cost plus inflation into the entire economy,” he said.

High oil prices could have broader implications for global economy

Bagga further noted that the surge in oil prices could have broader implications for global economic conditions.

“Monetary policy tightening may be forced onto central banks if this inflation stays elevated for a longer time.

“Overall, these levels of inflation point to an incipient global recession on the back of aggregate demand turning negative as marginal consumers stop discretionary consumption and cut back on non-discretionary consumption,” he added.

The sharp rise in crude prices has raised concerns across financial markets, as higher oil prices often lead to rising inflation and economic uncertainty globally.

Experts warn that if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate and supply disruptions persist, oil prices could remain volatile and may move towards the $150 level in the coming period.