A fall in the Nifty 50 to around 19,000 is not impossible, but that would likely require nuclear options to be exercised.

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Crude Oil Surge Jolts Markets

Crude oil prices rose over 25 per cent on Monday, March 9, 2026, sending global financial markets — including Indian equities — into a tailspin.

The Sensex plunged more than 2,700 points in intraday trade before recovering part of the losses.

The Nifty 50 slipped below the 24,000 mark, touching an intraday low of 23,697.8.

Leading market experts decode Monday’s market crash, the sharp spike in crude prices, and the investment strategy investors may consider in the current environment.

Oil Shock Seen Temporary

Venugopal Garre, managing director, Bernstein, sees the rise in oil prices as an acute event rather than a structural shift in the oil market.

In the current setting, much hinges less on the precise duration of the war and more on the trajectory of its intensity and geographic spread.

Historical data offers some perspective: While wars often drag on for years, their intensity typically declines materially after the first few weeks.

At the moment, the market appears to be pricing in crude oil at around $110 for roughly a month, with the earnings impact limited to the January to March quarter.

If crude retreats to that level within a week, sentiment could improve sharply.

Buy The Dip Strategy

Sunil Singhania, founder, Abakkus Asset Manager, had not expected such a sharp rally in crude prices and the subsequent market selloff.

Abakkus’ base case was that the weekend might bring some signs of de-escalation.

Until there are clear and concrete indications of that, investors are likely to remain nervous.

From an investment perspective, investors should consider buying the dip if markets correct further.

Historically, some of the best opportunities emerge when stocks are down 30 to 40 per cent from their peaks rather than when valuations are elevated.

Valuation Froth Eases

Rahul Singh, chief investment officer (equities), Tata Asset Management, says that while markets are not yet at rock-bottom levels that would justify maximum equity allocation, the thematic and narrative-driven froth across several sectors has receded.

India’s valuation premium over other emerging markets has also moderated considerably.

At these levels, the market can attract its fair share of emerging market flows without requiring foreign investors to sell India to buy other markets like China, especially if they are looking for a hedge against the artificial intelligence theme.

U R Bhat, cofounder and director, Alphaniti Fintech, says that from here on, the trajectory of crude and equity markets will depend on how the conflict escalates and whether it comes close to a “nuclear mission”.

At present, markets appear to have factored in most of the existing information at current levels.

A fall in the Nifty 50 to around 19,000 is not impossible, but that would likely require nuclear options to be exercised.

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff

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