Indian stock market next week: The Indian stock market finally snapped a six-week losing streak as extreme oversold conditions and supportive global cues lifted investor sentiment. The Nifty and Sensex ended the week with gains of around 1%, though momentum remained muted due to persistent foreign outflows.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their aggressive selling, offloading nearly ₹10,000 crore in the cash market, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) absorbed the pressure with strong buying worth ₹19,000 crore. Broader markets staged a recovery across sectors, led by pharma and auto stocks, though FMCG lagged.
Stock market next week
According to stock market experts, various domestic and global market triggers are expected to dictate Dalal Street movement. However, GST reforms announced by the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day speech and the ‘progress but no deal’ outcome from the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska are expected to play a dominant role during the first few sessions. However, they maintained that US Fed minutes, renewed fear of Trump’s tariffs on India, favourable monsoon season in the domestic market, and Indian inflation hitting a record low are some other triggers, which can’t be ignored.
Top five triggers that may dictate Dalal Street
1] Trump-Putin meeting outcome: Speaking on the result of the Putin-Trump meeting, Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered fundamental analyst, said, “The most-awaited Trump-Putin meeting has ended with progress without any deal. Both leaders agreed to meet for the next round of talks, which is a good sign of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Ahead of the meeting, the US President had vowed to walk out of the meeting if he didn’t like Russian President Vladimir Putin’s line of approach. However, after the end of the Trump-Putin meeting, both leaders talked positively, which may be a positive trigger for the global markets, including the Indian stock market.”
2] GST reforms: Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth, said, “Bulls are expected to cheer PM Modi’s announcement of GST reforms in his Independence Day speech. PM Modi has hinted at next-generation GST reforms by Diwali 2025, which is expected to boost consumption in India because GST is a consumption-oriented tax levied across the nation. As per the reports, the Government of India (GoI) has proposed shifting nearly 99% goods from the 12% GST slab to 5% and the same number of goods from the 28% GST slab to 18%. So the market may try to discount the GST reform, and we may see strong buying in consumption-oriented segments like FMCG, consumer durables, agriculture, etc.”
3] US Fed minutes: Anuj Gupta said the US Fed rate cut will be in focus next week as the Central Bank of India is releasing the US Fed minutes on Wednesday next week. In the US Fed minutes, if the US Federal Reserve drops any hint of a rate cut, the market is expected to cheer as FPIs’ outflow may get paused after this announcement. The US Fed rate cut decision is expected to put pressure on the US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar, and hence FIIs may fish out money from these assets and look at the emerging equity market, including Dalal Street. However, with no rate cut hint, strong selling from the FIIs can lead to a further rise in the US bonds and the US Dollar against major global currencies.
4] Trump’s tariffs on India: “After progress with no deal as an outcome from the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, focus has now shifted to the Trump-Zelensky meeting. However, the Indian market may not react sharply to this Trump-Putin meeting outcome, as the market was not expecting a breakthrough in the first meeting. So, there is no surprise element for the global markets, which includes Dalal Street,” said Avinash Gorakshkar.
On why renewed fear of Trump’s tariffs on India may not significantly impact the current scenario, Gaurav Goel, Founder & Director at Fynocrat Technologies, said, “Our growth does not rely on any single export market. Domestic consumption, services, manufacturing, and technology create a broad base that cannot be easily shaken by a single policy decision abroad. Even if the full set of proposed tariffs comes into effect, experts estimate the impact on India’s GDP to be less than 0.2 per cent. This is a reminder of how small this challenge is in our overall economy.”
5] Positive macro factors in India: Highlighting the strong and positive macro factors that may play a significant role on Dalal Street, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said, “The positive domestic factors — easing interest rate, inflation at record low and favourable monsoon, etc.- are expected to play a major role in the Indian stock market next week. These macro factors, coupled with the GST reforms, may trigger a bullish reversal in Indian equities, even as tariff-related headwinds persist globally.”
Key levels for Nifty 50, Bank Nifty
Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Santosh Meena said, “From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 index has established a strong base at the 24,350 level, forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart. The immediate resistance lies at the 20 and 50-day moving averages (DMAs) clustered around 24,700-24,800. A decisive break above this level could trigger a short-covering rally towards 24,950, 25,080, and 25,225. Immediate support is at the 100-DMA of 24,575, with the crucial support level remaining at 24,350.”
“The Bank Nifty index has also found a strong base at its 100-DMA of 55,000. The immediate hurdle for the banking index is the 20 and 50-DMAs around 55,800. A move above this level could propel it towards 56,400, 57,000, and 57,350. Fresh weakness is only anticipated if the index falls below the 55,000 mark,” Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
