The Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) is expecting clarity on trade-related developments with the United States early in the new year, its chairman Kirit Bhansali said.

Bhansali said the council is closely tracking discussions linked to the US market and hinted that an update could come soon. “First week of January, you will get good news,” he said, without sharing further details.

India’s gem and jewellery exports have remained steady in 2025 despite tariff pressure from the US and weaker demand from China, supported by free trade agreements (FTAs), Bhansali said. Exports stood at $19 billion till November. “We have maintained $19 billion exports till November. It shows that FTAs are helping us a lot,” he added.

New markets offset China slowdown

China has seen a slowdown, but Bhansali said the impact has been contained through diversification. FTAs are opening access to new regions including the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

Oman is emerging as a manufacturing and trading base, being viewed as a gateway to Africa and the GCC. Bhansali said there is growing interest in factory setups, aided by support on land, manpower and worker visas. He added that plain gold jewellery demand in the region has risen 80%.

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Exports to countries such as the UAE, New Zealand, Australia, the UK and Oman are gaining traction, with shipments to the UAE rising around 30% this year.

High gold prices temper demand

Gold prices remain near record levels at around $4,400 an ounce, making buyers cautious. Bhansali cautioned retailers against speculation. “Any gambling in this volatile market will burn your finger,” he said.

Domestic demand could see support from the wedding season between December and March, though buyers remain price-sensitive. In volume terms, exports may hold up due to higher prices, but weight-based volumes could fall 15–20% this calendar year.

Diamonds near a floor, outlook cautious

On diamonds, Bhansali said prices appear to have stabilised after recent weakness. “This is the bottom. I don’t see price correction from here,” he said, adding that progress on US-India trade talks could provide further support.

Looking ahead, Bhansali said 2026 will be challenging amid uncertainty in the US and China, but FTAs, market diversification and policy support remain key to the sector’s export strategy.

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