Russia is watching Israel’s bombardment of Iran with mounting concern for the survival of a key ally, though the Kremlin recognises it has few levers to influence the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Iran hasn’t asked for Russian help, and Moscow doesn’t plan to offer any defense assistance, according to a person close to the Kremlin. No one can stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from pursuing the bombing, and Russia won’t be able to act as a mediator to stop the conflict if the goal is regime change, the person said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues.

“At the moment, mediation does not seem likely,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a think tank that advises the Kremlin. “If it comes to some form of behind-the-scenes diplomacy, Russia is more likely to play a role between Iran and the United States — Israel’s interest in negotiations is not apparent.”

Russia has deepened its ties with Iran since President Vladimir Putin ordered the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and triggered Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. Iran has provided Russia with hundreds of combat drones used to attack targets in Ukraine, and the US and Europe last year accused it of supplying ballistic missiles to Moscow, though Tehran denied the allegation.