“We do like real estate. We are seeing the commercial cycle continuing to strengthen,” Gupta said, adding that capital goods companies, especially in power equipment manufacturing, are showing strong earnings delivery. He also noted market share gains for retail, quick commerce, and consumer tech companies, even though overall consumption trends remain subdued.
Also Read | Samir Arora sees modest returns ahead, no quick RBI rate cut likely
Gupta said corporate earnings have been steady but not high. “Top line growth… is only around 6–7% for the broader market,” he said. In some mid-cap and small-cap stocks, growth is still between 10-12%, while certain sectors like cement, real estate, and hospitality are seeing earnings growth above 20%. However, these sectors trade at “a 60-70% premium” to Nifty valuations.
On the broader economy, Gupta pointed out that nominal GDP growth has slowed since the fiscal year 2021-22 (FY22), when it touched 20%, to an estimated 8% this year. He linked this slowdown to weaker goods and services tax (GST) collections and said it was “weighing on corporate earnings.”
Commenting on India’s merchandise exports to the US, Gupta said they form only 2% of GDP, so the impact of tariffs would be minimal for most companies, though some sectors like textiles could see a bigger effect. The focus, he stressed, should be on whether domestic growth revives with liquidity infusions and lower interest rates.
Also Read | Trust MF’s Mihir Vora warns US tariff could destroy exports, trigger job losses
On ICICI Bank’s hike in minimum average balance, Gupta said banks face rising service quality expectations and regulatory demands. “It is fair for banks to… look at a cohort of customers where they can meet the customer’s expectation,” he said.
In the F&O segment, Gupta said Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has acted against potential malpractices and introduced measures that are already showing results. “We are seeing some tempering down in the volumes and activity… SEBI will probably wait to see what the impact is,” he noted.
For more details, watch the accompanying video
Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here
